Good morning.

If you’ve been spending your mornings with Still Monday, thank you.

A few of you have already written back to tell us you’re enjoying it. Keep doing that. Vote at the bottom, reply when something hits a nerve, and tell us when something doesn’t.

And if you know someone who would rather read this than whatever is currently happening in their Monday meeting, forward it to them.

Now.

Apparently the job market has seasons.

And we just entered one of the interesting ones.

Let’s get to work.

There’s a piece of recruiting folklore called the September Surge.

The idea is simple.

Summer ends.

Hiring managers return from vacation.

Budgets need to get used.

Companies suddenly remember Q4 exists.

And job postings start appearing.

It sounds suspiciously like something invented by recruiters on TikTok.

Except there’s actually something behind it.

LinkedIn’s analysis of hiring seasonality found that U.S. job postings tend to rise sharply in September and October.

In one analysis, postings went from 3% below March levels in August to 14% above them in September.

October remained 11% above March.

Applications didn’t experience the same fall bump.

Read that again.

More jobs.

Without a matching surge in people applying.

That's interesting.

Especially in a job market where candidates have spent much of the year describing the application process as sending résumés directly into a black hole with an ATS installed.

There is a catch.

Hiring overall remains weak compared with the pre-pandemic market.

LinkedIn estimates hiring is still more than 20% below pre-pandemic levels, and the number of available jobs per applicant is lower than a year ago.

So September isn't Career Christmas.

Your dream company isn't waiting outside with an offer and a signing bonus.

But timing matters.

Companies slow down in summer.

Then September arrives with managers back at desks, budgets under review and somebody realizing:

We were supposed to hire that person three months ago.

This creates a small window.

And small windows matter when everybody is competing for attention.

If you've been considering a move, this is probably a better month to test the market than December 19.

You don't have to quit.

You don't have to put a green circle around your LinkedIn profile picture.

You don't even have to tell anyone.

Just look.

See what companies are hiring.

See which skills keep appearing.

See what companies are willing to pay.

See whether your experience is more valuable outside your current employer than you've assumed.

The best part of looking for a job while you still have one is that you don't need every opportunity to work.

You only need one to be interesting enough.

September may give you a few more chances to find it.

U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August, while unemployment stayed at 4.1%.

That's a sharp improvement from July's 21,000 gain.

But the gains were uneven.

Food service added 59,200 jobs.

Local government education added 41,900.

Information lost 23,000.

The job market is doing better.

Your job market may have other plans.

Retail, logistics and transportation tend to ramp up ahead of the holidays.

Accounting often begins preparing for year-end and tax season.

Professional-services firms also recruit in fall for people who may not start until months later.

Apparently jobs have calendars too.

There's a strange advantage in searching when other candidates aren't.

LinkedIn's seasonal data suggest job applications generally peak earlier in the year and don't rise as strongly with the September increase in postings.

Your New Year's career resolution may work better in September.

Please adjust the inspirational notebook accordingly.

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Don't “start looking for a job.”

That's enormous.

Do this instead.

Pick 10 companies you'd seriously consider working for.

Create alerts for the roles you want.

Once a week, spend 30 minutes reviewing:

What opened?

What keeps showing up in the requirements?

Which skills appear repeatedly?

Who do I know there?

That's enough.

You're not applying to everything.

You're collecting market intelligence.

After four weeks, you'll know considerably more about your career than someone who waits until they're desperate to leave.

You don't need another offer to find out whether you're underpaid.

Look at current roles.

Talk to recruiters.

Compare compensation ranges.

See what comparable positions are paying.

Then ask a useful question:

If I had to replace my current job tomorrow, what would the market offer me?

Your salary tells you what your employer values your work at today.

The market tells you something else.

Knowing both is useful.

Especially before the annual review where somebody enthusiastically announces:

Congratulations. We got you 3%.

Role posted: September 2

Applications received: 614

Candidates interviewed: 12

Finalists: 3

STATUS: Hiring paused.

REASON: Budget review.

BUDGET DEPARTMENT: Please use remaining budget before year-end.

Some years the increase is modest.

Some industries barely experience it.

But there is enough seasonal movement that ignoring September entirely doesn't make much sense if you're considering a career change.

You don't need a surge.

You need an opening.

Vote below and tell us how we're doing.

And if you know someone who's been saying “I really need to start looking” for six months, forward this to them.

Consider it a gentle intervention.

They can subscribe at www.still-monday.com.

Technically Monday. Emotionally... extremely Monday.

See you tomorrow.

— The Still Monday Desk