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Our growth strategy currently consists largely of you having coworkers.

Now, something weird happened to the job market.

Again.

Let’s get to work.

On Friday morning, economists were expecting the U.S. economy to have added about 56,000 jobs in August.

The actual number:

162,000.

Nearly three times the forecast.

Unemployment held at 4.1%.

June and July employment were also revised upward by a combined 55,000 jobs.

If you’ve spent the last few months hearing that hiring is frozen, this sounds like excellent news.

And it is.

Sort of.

Because buried inside the same report is another number.

11.4 weeks.

That’s now the median amount of time an unemployed person has been looking for work.

The average is even uglier:

26.3 weeks.

More than six months.

Which explains one of the strangest things about the current job market.

Two people can have completely different experiences with it.

PERSON A:
The economy seems fine. My company is hiring.

PERSON B:
I’ve applied to 143 jobs and received four automated rejection emails.

Both can be telling the truth.

Because “the job market” isn’t really one market.

Hospitality added around 62,000 jobs in August.

Local government education added around 42,000.

Construction, manufacturing and healthcare also added workers.

Information and financial activities lost jobs.

So the same economy can be hungry for workers in one place and extremely uninterested in them somewhere else.

And that matters if you’re thinking about your career.

For the past few years, a lot of career advice has treated employability like a personal score.

Good résumé.

Good LinkedIn.

Good network.

Good interview skills.

Do everything correctly and opportunities should appear.

Those things matter.

But sometimes the market simply wants fewer people who do what you do.

That’s harder to fix with a résumé template.

The more useful question becomes:

Where is demand moving?

Which industries are hiring?

Which skills keep appearing in job descriptions?

Which roles are disappearing?

Which parts of your experience transfer somewhere else?

And perhaps most importantly:

What happens if your current role becomes harder to sell three years from now?

You don’t need to predict the economy.

Apparently economists have already volunteered for that job.

You just need enough awareness to notice when the market for your work starts changing.

Friday’s report was encouraging.

Hiring is stronger than expected.

More people entered the labor force.

Companies created considerably more jobs than anyone thought they would.

But if you’re currently searching and it still feels awful, the statistics aren’t telling you you’re imagining it.

They’re telling you something stranger.

The economy can be hiring while your corner of it isn’t.

August’s 162,000 new jobs were the largest monthly increase in five months and nearly triple the 56,000 economists surveyed by Reuters expected.

The stronger report also pushed financial markets toward expecting another Federal Reserve rate increase later this month.

One jobs report.

Millions of careers.

And somehow your mortgage rate also got invited.

02 / The private-job numbers told a different story

Two days before the government jobs report, ADP estimated that private employers added only 38,000 jobs in August, the slowest pace since January.

Professional and business services lost 16,000 jobs, manufacturing lost 17,000 and information lost 4,000.

Education and health services, construction, and leisure and hospitality performed better.

If you’re wondering how two respected employment reports can look so different:

Welcome to economic data.

There will be no orientation.

ADP’s new Pay Insights data shows median base pay increased 3.0% for employees who stayed in their jobs.

For people who changed jobs:

4.7%.

Include bonuses, commissions, tips and other earnings and gross-pay growth was 4.4% for stayers versus 7.3% for job changers.

Your employer appreciates your loyalty.

Please accept this branded water bottle.

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Learn more.

Take a job you actually want.

Ignore the qualifications for a minute.

Read the responsibilities.

Find the five things the company appears to need this person to accomplish.

Now put your résumé beside them.

For each one, ask:

Where have I proved I can do this?

Not mentioned it.

Proved it.

Bad:

Responsible for customer acquisition.

Better:

Built an outbound process that generated 37% of new pipeline in six months.

Bad:

Managed strategic projects.

Better:

Led a six-person launch across sales, product and operations; delivered three weeks ahead of schedule.

Same candidate.

Different evidence.

Recruiters already have plenty to read.

Don’t make them solve a mystery too.

You probably know your salary.

You may not know your switch number.

Start with everything your current job gives you:

Salary.

Bonus.

Retirement match.

Health insurance.

Equity.

Vacation.

Flexibility.

Commute.

Then add the things that are harder to price.

A manager you trust.

A schedule that works.

Job security.

Autonomy.

Knowing exactly where the bodies are buried in the shared drive.

Now ask:

What would another company have to offer for me to give all of this up?

That’s your switch number.

And there’s a reason to know it.

ADP’s August data shows job changers are still seeing faster compensation growth than people who stay put.

That doesn’t mean you should leave.

It means you shouldn’t wait until a recruiter calls to decide what staying is worth.

A $10,000 raise sounds attractive.

A $10,000 raise plus a 90-minute commute, worse insurance and a manager who schedules Sunday check-ins is a different financial product.

Do the math before somebody puts a flattering title in front of you.

CANDIDATE: Wonderful.

RECRUITER: It’s just a quick interview with the hiring manager.

Then the director.

Then the team.

Then a case study.

Then the VP.

Then culture fit.

CANDIDATE: And after that?

RECRUITER: We’ll let you know if you qualify for Round 2.

Which is a useful reminder whenever someone confidently tells you exactly what the economy will do next.

Forecasting is difficult.

The economy contains hundreds of millions of humans making decisions simultaneously.

Some of them don’t even know what they’re having for lunch.

Plan accordingly.

Before you go…

If you’re enjoying Still Monday, vote below.

Reply if there’s something we should cover. We genuinely want to know what you’re seeing inside your own workplace.

And send this issue to the coworker who’s been thinking about changing jobs.

They can subscribe too.

No referral bonus yet.

We’re working on the compensation package.

Technically Wednesday. Emotionally Monday.

See you tomorrow.

— The Still Monday Desk