Your raise may be making you poorer

ISSUE #43 • WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2026 • 5 MIN READ

Good morning. Thanks for reading Still Monday. Send this one to the person who got a raise, opened the grocery app and immediately lost the emotional benefit.

Salary conversations usually start with one question: did the number go up? Useful, but incomplete. The number can rise while your buying power falls.

Today, the math is getting awkward again.

Indeed's latest U.S. labor-market snapshot says advertised wages grew 2.4% year over year in September. Consumer prices were up 3.7%. Inflation-adjusted average weekly earnings fell 0.5% from August to September and were 0.1% lower than a year earlier. Indeed Hiring Lab

This is one of those moments when payroll can deliver good news and your bank account can decline to celebrate. A 3% raise is positive in nominal dollars. If the things you buy rise faster, your real compensation shrinks.

The Atlanta Fed adds another wrinkle. Its September Wage Growth Tracker shows median wage growth of 4.7% for job switchers and 3.4% for people who stayed put. The switching premium still exists, although it has cooled. Atlanta Fed

So the labor market is sending two messages at once. Staying can produce slower wage growth. Leaving may still pay more, but the easy job-hopping years are gone. And even a decent nominal increase can disappear under higher prices.

Percentage raises hide the base number, inflation, benefits and market movement. Five percent on an underpaid salary can leave you underpaid. Three percent on a strong package may still be competitive. A title bump with no money can be very motivating if your landlord accepts titles.

A better salary review uses four numbers: current total compensation, the market range for comparable work, the change in real purchasing power, and the cost of replacing benefits you would lose by moving.

Your company already does this kind of math with vendors. You are allowed to do it with your paycheck.

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The Atlanta Fed's September tracker put wage growth at 4.7% for switchers versus 3.4% for stayers. The gap is smaller than during the post-pandemic hiring frenzy, but it has not disappeared.

Indeed found advertised wages rising much faster in pockets such as electrical engineering and IT systems. Your labor market is your role, geography and skill set, not the national average pasted into an HR slide.

A paycheck can rise in dollars while falling in purchasing power. Comparing this year's salary only with last year's salary can give you the wrong answer.

Once a quarter, write down base salary, expected bonus or variable pay, employer-paid benefits you would have to replace, and a realistic market range for your role. Add inflation if you want the uncomfortable version.

You need enough information to know whether your compensation is improving, drifting or falling behind before the annual review becomes the first time you look.

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If somebody offers a 6% increase, translate it into annual and monthly dollars. Then compare the new total with the market range and with the benefits attached to the job.

Percentages are excellent at sounding larger than they feel. Rent continues to prefer dollars.

MANAGER: Great news. You got a 3% raise.

EMPLOYEE: Nice.

INFLATION: 3.7%.

EMPLOYEE: Who invited you?

INFLATION: I was already in the meeting.

A raise is good news. Whether it actually improves your life is a separate calculation.

Vote below and tell us what matters most in your next compensation conversation: base pay, bonus, benefits, flexibility or a bigger role.

Technically Wednesday. Emotionally checking the direct deposit.

— The Still Monday Desk